Tom welcomes Michael Oliver back from Momentum Structural Analysis to discuss the economy's past year and its potential future direction. Michael highlights that although a significant number of "soft jobs" were created, the overall g…
Tom welcomes Michael Oliver back from Momentum Structural Analysis to discuss the economy's past year and its potential future direction. Michael highlights that although a significant number of "soft jobs" were created, the overall growth remained relatively flat and not as robust as portrayed in the mainstream media.
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When analyzing the real estate market, including REITs, Michael finds that they are also facing challenges. Looking at his momentum charts, he observes clear signs of declining momentum in the S&P500, which could lead to a substantial correction. Contrary to popular belief, Michael argues that rate cuts are not bullish for the stock market, as they signal underlying concerns to investors. If the S&P500 drops below the 4500 level, further downside may be expected. In Michael's view, the Fed will likely cut rates before June to regain control over the rapidly fluctuating T-Bill markets, considering they have limited influence on the long-end of the market.
Michael also discusses the relationship between gold and silver. While gold often lags behind, it can experience rapid increases in value, which silver tends to follow. Currently, silver is underperforming in comparison to gold, but Michael believes it may enter a new trading range and eventually outperform gold based on historical behavior.
In addition to economic factors, Michael emphasizes that the market is not adequately pricing in the uncertainties surrounding the 2024 election. A tumultuous period with little compromise from either side is expected, potentially leading to increased political polarization and a higher likelihood of violence from both ends. Michael even suggests that the possibility of states seceding is on the rise. With these factors in mind, ..
